The OECD’s March 2026 interim outlook highlights a global economy under pressure from Middle East tensions. While resilient growth is supported by strong technology investment and easing tariffs, rising energy prices and supply disruptions—particularly through the Strait of Hormuz—are driving inflation and uncertainty. Global GDP is expected to remain stable near 2.9% in 2026, but risks are tilted to the downside, with prolonged energy shocks potentially weakening growth and extending inflationary pressures worldwide.

Artificial intelligence is disrupting the software industry, compressing margins and challenging traditional business models. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, currency shifts, trade disputes, and energy market shocks are reshaping the global economic landscape. Markets are navigating structural change across technology, geopolitics, trade policy, and global power balances.

Rising geopolitical tensions, trade realignments and institutional pressures marked the start of 2026. From U.S. intervention in Venezuela and renewed power politics to central bank independence concerns, landmark trade agreements and shifting investor sentiment, global politics and economics are increasingly shaped by coercion, strategic rivalry and fragile alliances.

The 12 months to 31 December 2025 were an equity-driven year for La Côte Invest’s strategies. Global equity carried every sleeve, the active-enhanced sleeves earned a second leg of return from gold, and currency was the dominant relative swing factor — a USD-weakness drag on CHF and EUR sleeves and a tailwind for USD-referenced ones.

2025 was shaped by rising trade tensions, shifting geopolitics, AI adoption and resilient financial markets. Higher U.S. tariffs, China’s export dominance, changing security priorities, and the normalization of Japanese monetary policy all defined a complex global backdrop, while equity markets delivered strong but currency-dependent returns.

The OECD Economic Outlook highlights resilient global growth supported by improving financial conditions and AI investment, but warns of rising fragilities. Slowing labour markets, trade tensions, financial risks and weak productivity underline the need for structural reforms to secure sustainable growth and bring inflation back to target.

Global markets shift as major political and economic developments unfold: the U.S. ends its longest government shutdown, tariffs are rolled back, Switzerland strikes a landmark trade deal, Nvidia soars on explosive AI demand, China faces weakening growth, and expectations for a December Fed rate cut continue to build.

Global business activity strengthened in October as Germany and the U.S. led global growth momentum. Inflation rose to 3% in the U.S., while regional bank troubles resurfaced. China tightened rare earth exports, the U.S. sanctioned Russian oil giants, and Japan elected its first female prime minister amid shifting global dynamics.

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September 2025, a turbulent month in global politics and economics: Trump plans 100% tariffs on medicines and higher visa costs, while the Fed cuts rates under pressure. Europe faces U.S. demands on digital taxes, France loses its prime minister, and Russia strikes NATO territory. Gold hits record highs, Switzerland signs a Mercosur trade deal.

Global growth remained more resilient than expected in early 2025, driven by emerging markets and the US. Industrial activity and trade were boosted by front-loading ahead of US tariff hikes, which reached an effective rate of 19.5% by August — the highest since the 1930s. While the full impact is still unfolding, early signs of strain are visible in consumption, labour markets and prices. Risks to the outlook remain tilted to the downside, though easing trade restrictions or rapid advances in AI could provide upside surprises.

August 2025 saw mounting political pressure on the U.S. Fed and a looming confidence vote in France, shaking investor sentiment. While eurozone 10-year yields held steady, credit spreads in the U.S. remained tight amid demand for high-grade corporates. Global equities rose modestly, led by emerging Asian and resource-rich markets.

Amidst global economic uncertainties, La Côte Invest is taking proactive measures by hedging 50% of its equity exposure. This strategic move involves implementing a Put Spread strategy with a lookback feature, aiming to protect the portfolio from potential market downturns.

U.S. inflation rose to 2.7% in July, keeping Fed rates steady at 4.25–4.50%. Trump escalated trade tensions with new tariffs, while markets rebounded, led by Nvidia surpassing $4 trillion. Spain faced tourism strikes, and England’s Lionesses clinched the UEFA Women’s Euro 2025 in Basel.

June was shaped by Middle East tensions, a sharp but short-lived oil price spike, and diverging central bank paths, with the Fed on hold and the ECB cutting rates. Trump’s renewed attacks on Powell pressured the dollar, while the BIS warned of rising global fragility. A 90-day US-China tariff truce brought only temporary relief to markets.

The global economic outlook is deteriorating, with rising trade barriers, policy uncertainty, and tightening financial conditions threatening growth. Inflation risks remain high, driven by trade disruptions—though lower commodity prices may offer some relief. A reversal in trade tensions could provide a much-needed boost.

May 2025 saw a shift in the global landscape: the U.S. economy contracted, Moody’s downgraded U.S. debt, and trade tensions eased with delayed tariffs. Equity markets rallied, especially in Europe and North America. Friedrich Merz became Germany’s new Chancellor, Pope Leo XIV was elected, and bond yields rose as markets reacted to fiscal concerns and central bank signals.

President Trump’s sweeping tariffs and public attacks on the Federal Reserve rattled markets and global allies in April 2025. His increasingly autocratic rhetoric added to geopolitical unease. Tesla reported a sharp earnings slump, hit by reputational backlash tied to Musk’s political ties. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a 13-year low, reflecting growing economic and political uncertainty.

As democracy, rule of law, and open markets come under pressure—even in long-trusted economies like the U.S.—investors must rethink geographic diversification. Institutional resilience, not short-term data, is the true driver of sustainable returns. In a world of rising political risk, long-term capital should flow to countries where the foundational pillars of prosperity remain strong and intact.

Global growth held steady at 3.2% in 2024, but recent indicators show signs of weakening. Inflation remains persistent, sentiment is softening, and policy uncertainty is high. Risks include tighter monetary policy and financial market disruptions. A key concern is rising global fragmentation—though a reversal in tariffs could boost growth. The outlook is increasingly fragile and dependent on policy direction.