As democracy, rule of law, and open markets come under pressure—even in long-trusted economies like the U.S.—investors must rethink geographic diversification. Institutional resilience, not short-term data, is the true driver of sustainable returns. In a world of rising political risk, long-term capital should flow to countries where the foundational pillars of prosperity remain strong and intact.

Global growth held steady at 3.2% in 2024, but recent indicators show signs of weakening. Inflation remains persistent, sentiment is softening, and policy uncertainty is high. Risks include tighter monetary policy and financial market disruptions. A key concern is rising global fragmentation—though a reversal in tariffs could boost growth. The outlook is increasingly fragile and dependent on policy direction.

The U.S. will impose new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China—raising serious economic and strategic concerns. Despite justifications tied to trade deficits, migration, and the fentanyl crisis, critics warn of supply chain disruptions, rising consumer costs, and diplomatic fallout. La Côte Invest views the move as economically risky, potentially undermining key trade relationships and further destabilizing global market confidence.

Our central scenario in the Economic Outlook portrays a picture of resilience. However, this optimism is tempered by significant uncertainties. Elevated geopolitical tensions risk disrupting energy markets and supply chains, potentially driving inflation higher and dampening economic activity. More broadly, these tensions have created headwinds for trade in both advanced and emerging markets, heightening uncertainty over the future course of global trade. A more fragmented, protectionist trading environment and inward-looking policies would negatively affect competition, raise prices, and hinder productivity and growth, while also weighing on the potential for emerging market economies to catch up.