Our central scenario in the Economic Outlook portrays a picture of resilience. However, this optimism is tempered by significant uncertainties. Elevated geopolitical tensions risk disrupting energy markets and supply chains, potentially driving inflation higher and dampening economic activity. More broadly, these tensions have created headwinds for trade in both advanced and emerging markets, heightening uncertainty over the future course of global trade. A more fragmented, protectionist trading environment and inward-looking policies would negatively affect competition, raise prices, and hinder productivity and growth, while also weighing on the potential for emerging market economies to catch up.

Once hailed as the future of responsible investing, ESG is fading fast in the U.S. Politicized, diluted, and often greenwashed, its promise to reshape capitalism has collapsed. With regulators pulling back and investors losing faith, America’s “sustainable” revolution seems over — replaced by a wave of economic nationalism.

Over 80% of active funds have underperformed their benchmarks over the past decade, according to SPIVA data. At La Côte Invest, we focus on what truly drives long-term success: a sound, cost-efficient strategy tailored to each client. By relying primarily on passive instruments and only taking active positions when conviction is high, we ensure consistency, transparency, and performance.

The OECD’s September 2024 Interim Report shows resilient global growth and declining inflation. High-frequency data point to continued momentum, with services outpacing manufacturing. While consumer confidence remains below historical averages, signs of improvement are emerging in Europe and key emerging markets. Headline inflation has eased across most G20 countries, supporting a cautiously optimistic outlook for the global economy.

A strong equity rebound in 2023 lifted all 18 LCI multi-asset strategies above their respective benchmarks. This review covers full-year returns, since-inception cushions, best and worst performers, FX impacts, and portfolio changes across CHF, EUR and USD sleeves.

2022 hit stocks and bonds together, yet all 18 LCI strategies beat their benchmarks — by between +1.2% and +11.3% — and every sleeve stayed ahead since inception.

2021 rewarded a static, equity-heavy stance across all 18 LCI multi-asset strategies. Developed-market equities, led by the US and Canada, powered every return, while a defensive bond core capped the upside as yields rose. Currency was the swing factor, lifting EUR strategies and weighing on USD ones.

A textbook risk-on recovery year. Across all 18 LCI strategies, equity carried the return — led by US mega-cap and Korea — while the active-enhanced overlay of gold and listed alternatives delivered the clearest source of outperformance over the semi-passive sleeves.

2019 was a broadly risk-on year: every LCI strategy posted a high-single-digit or double-digit gain, led by US and European equities with credit a steady second leg. All 18 sleeves beat their benchmarks, and the active-enhanced SE sleeves outperformed their semi-passive twins in every family.

2018 was a textbook late-cycle, risk-off year. Every LCI strategy posted a negative 12-month return, yet all 18 beat their benchmark by between +180 and +780 bps and stayed ahead since inception — the value of diversified, multi-asset construction showing up exactly where it should.

2017 rewarded equity beta, and LCI’s strategies captured it with double-digit returns at the Growth end. The decisive relative lesson was currency, not allocation: a sharply appreciating EUR cost the EUR sleeves against their benchmarks, the mirror image of the tailwind that lifted the USD sleeves.

2016, the strategies’ first year since launch, began with a China/oil scare and absorbed the Brexit shock before a strong second-half recovery. Every strategy ended positive and almost all beat their benchmark — the outperformance coming from genuine diversification across equity, recovered credit, gold and real estate.