OECD-Wirtschaftsausblick – September 2025
Die Weltwirtschaft erwies sich im ersten Halbjahr 2025 als widerstandsfähiger als erwartet, getragen von Schwellenländern und den USA. Doch höhere Zölle, anhaltende Dienstleistungsinflation und fiskalische Risiken belasten die Aussichten. Eine Lockerung der Handelsbeschränkungen oder Fortschritte bei der KI könnten hingegen neue Impulse für das Wachstum liefern.
OECD Economic Outlook – June 2025
The global economic outlook is deteriorating, with rising trade barriers, policy uncertainty, and tightening financial conditions threatening growth. Inflation risks remain high, driven by trade disruptions—though lower commodity prices may offer some relief. A reversal in trade tensions could provide a much-needed boost.
OECD Economic Outlook – March 2025
Global growth held steady at 3.2% in 2024, but recent indicators show signs of weakening. Inflation remains persistent, sentiment is softening, and policy uncertainty is high. Risks include tighter monetary policy and financial market disruptions. A key concern is rising global fragmentation—though a reversal in tariffs could boost growth. The outlook is increasingly fragile and dependent on policy direction.
OECD Economic Outlook – Decembre 2024
Our central scenario in the Economic Outlook portrays a picture of resilience. However, this optimism is tempered by significant uncertainties. Elevated geopolitical tensions risk disrupting energy markets and supply chains, potentially driving inflation higher and dampening economic activity. More broadly, these tensions have created headwinds for trade in both advanced and emerging markets, heightening uncertainty over the future course of global trade. A more fragmented, protectionist trading environment and inward-looking policies would negatively affect competition, raise prices, and hinder productivity and growth, while also weighing on the potential for emerging market economies to catch up.
OECD Economic Outlook: Interim Report September 2024
The OECD’s September 2024 Interim Report shows resilient global growth and declining inflation. High-frequency data point to continued momentum, with services outpacing manufacturing. While consumer confidence remains below historical averages, signs of improvement are emerging in Europe and key emerging markets. Headline inflation has eased across most G20 countries, supporting a cautiously optimistic outlook for the global economy.