Market & Economic Perspectives | Analysis & Insights
LCI Monthly – What Shaped July 2025
U.S. inflation rose to 2.7% in July, keeping Fed rates steady at 4.25–4.50%. Trump escalated trade tensions with new tariffs, while markets rebounded, led by Nvidia surpassing $4 trillion. Spain faced tourism strikes, and England’s Lionesses clinched the UEFA Women’s Euro 2025 in Basel.
LCI Monthly – What Shaped June 2025
June was shaped by Middle East tensions, a sharp but short-lived oil price spike, and diverging central bank paths, with the Fed on hold and the ECB cutting rates. Trump’s renewed attacks on Powell pressured the dollar, while the BIS warned of rising global fragility. A 90-day US-China tariff truce brought only temporary relief to markets.
OECD Economic Outlook – June 2025
The global economic outlook is deteriorating, with rising trade barriers, policy uncertainty, and tightening financial conditions threatening growth. Inflation risks remain high, driven by trade disruptions—though lower commodity prices may offer some relief. A reversal in trade tensions could provide a much-needed boost.
LCI Monthly – What Shaped May 2025
May 2025 saw a shift in the global landscape: the U.S. economy contracted, Moody’s downgraded U.S. debt, and trade tensions eased with delayed tariffs. Equity markets rallied, especially in Europe and North America. Friedrich Merz became Germany’s new Chancellor, Pope Leo XIV was elected, and bond yields rose as markets reacted to fiscal concerns and central bank signals.
LCI Monthly - What Shaped April 2025
President Trump’s sweeping tariffs and public attacks on the Federal Reserve rattled markets and global allies in April 2025. His increasingly autocratic rhetoric added to geopolitical unease. Tesla reported a sharp earnings slump, hit by reputational backlash tied to Musk’s political ties. Meanwhile, U.S. consumer confidence dropped to a 13-year low, reflecting growing economic and political uncertainty.
Prosperity Has a Foundation – and It's Beginning to Crumble
As democracy, rule of law, and open markets come under pressure—even in long-trusted economies like the U.S.—investors must rethink geographic diversification. Institutional resilience, not short-term data, is the true driver of sustainable returns. In a world of rising political risk, long-term capital should flow to countries where the foundational pillars of prosperity remain strong and intact.
OECD Economic Outlook – March 2025
Global growth held steady at 3.2% in 2024, but recent indicators show signs of weakening. Inflation remains persistent, sentiment is softening, and policy uncertainty is high. Risks include tighter monetary policy and financial market disruptions. A key concern is rising global fragmentation—though a reversal in tariffs could boost growth. The outlook is increasingly fragile and dependent on policy direction.
Trump Is Nero While Washington Burns
French Senator Claude Malhuret delivers a scathing warning about America’s retreat from global leadership, likening Trump to Nero as the pillars of democracy burn. His viral speech urges Europeans to wake up, rearm morally and militarily, and stand firm for Ukraine and democratic values. In his view, Europe's future now depends on its own resolve—not Washington’s.
US Stock Markets Under Pressure: Concerns Over Economic Slowdown Under Trump
Investor optimism following Trump’s re-election has faded amid rising fears of an economic slowdown. Markets tumbled, with the S&P 500 down 3% and Tesla plunging 15%. Slowing demand, political turmoil, and recession warnings weigh heavily. Bond yields have dropped, and key indicators point to weakening growth. Trump now frames the downturn as a “transition period”—but confidence is slipping fast.
LCI Strategic Asset Allocation: Reduction of US Investments
Trump’s destabilizing actions have shaken global trust in the U.S., prompting La Côte Invest to act. Amid rising geopolitical risk and growing domestic polarization, we’ve halved our U.S. equity weighting relative to market capitalization and introduced a 10% gold allocation. These strategic shifts reflect our commitment to protecting long-term client stability in an increasingly uncertain global environment.
U.S. to Implement New Tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China: A Risky Strategy?
The U.S. will impose new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China—raising serious economic and strategic concerns. Despite justifications tied to trade deficits, migration, and the fentanyl crisis, critics warn of supply chain disruptions, rising consumer costs, and diplomatic fallout. La Côte Invest views the move as economically risky, potentially undermining key trade relationships and further destabilizing global market confidence.
Doubts About China’s Economic Data
The Chinese government reported 5% economic growth for 2024, aligning with the target set by the National People’s Congress. According to official statements, this was mainly driven by stimulus measures in the final quarter and strong exports. However, experts like the economists at the Rhodium Group estimate actual growth for 2024 at only 2.4% to 2.8%.
OECD Economic Outlook – Decembre 2024
Our central scenario in the Economic Outlook portrays a picture of resilience. However, this optimism is tempered by significant uncertainties. Elevated geopolitical tensions risk disrupting energy markets and supply chains, potentially driving inflation higher and dampening economic activity. More broadly, these tensions have created headwinds for trade in both advanced and emerging markets, heightening uncertainty over the future course of global trade. A more fragmented, protectionist trading environment and inward-looking policies would negatively affect competition, raise prices, and hinder productivity and growth, while also weighing on the potential for emerging market economies to catch up.
ESG - Ever So Gone
Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) investing has seen a sharp decline in the US, impacted by its entanglement with political and cultural conflicts. The initial promise of ESG to foster a clean, sustainable shift in capitalism has largely been abandoned. The term “ESG” itself has been politicized, particularly by right-wing politicians, with Larry Fink of BlackRock stating it has been “weaponized” and should no longer be used. BlackRock has become a target for conservative critics, even labeled in a recent book alongside the Boy Scouts and the Chinese Communist Party as a “decadent” institution. Many supporters of ESG are also disillusioned, seeing it as more of a marketing tactic than a meaningful investment strategy. Several firms, including WisdomTree and Invesco, have faced fines for “greenwashing” their products. Additionally, BlackRock faces allegations in France that some of its “sustainable” funds are still investing in fossil fuels.
Why Active Funds Fail and How La Côte Invest Ensures Success
Over 80% of active funds have underperformed their benchmarks over the past decade, according to SPIVA data. At La Côte Invest, we focus on what truly drives long-term success: a sound, cost-efficient strategy tailored to each client. By relying primarily on passive instruments and only taking active positions when conviction is high, we ensure consistency, transparency, and performance.
OECD Economic Outlook: Interim Report September 2024
The OECD’s September 2024 Interim Report shows resilient global growth and declining inflation. High-frequency data point to continued momentum, with services outpacing manufacturing. While consumer confidence remains below historical averages, signs of improvement are emerging in Europe and key emerging markets. Headline inflation has eased across most G20 countries, supporting a cautiously optimistic outlook for the global economy.