OECD Economic Outlook – Decembre 2024

Resilience in uncertain times

Introduction

The global economy has remained resilient this year, despite differences in the strength of activity across countries and sectors. Inflation has continued to moderate and headline inflation is now back to central bank targets in most economies. Labour market tightness has also eased, although unemployment rates generally remain at or near historical lows. However, risks are casting a shadow over what is otherwise a relatively benign central projection. Key risks pertain to the intensification of geopolitical tensions, inflation turning out more persistent than anticipated and a sharp repricing of risk in financial markets.

Global growth is projected to remain stable

Global GDP growth is projected to strengthen slightly to 3.3% in 2025 and remain stable at this level through 2026. In OECD economies, GDP growth is projected to be modest relative to the pre-pandemic period, at 1.9% in both 2025 and 2026. In non-OECD economies, aggregate growth is also anticipated to remain broadly stable around its current pace with emerging Asia continuing to be the biggest contributor to global growth. 

Real GDP Growth projections for 2024, 2025 and 2026, %, year-on-year, G20

Inflation is projected to fall further

Headline inflation has continued to ease in most countries through 2024, led by further falls in food, energy and goods price inflation. However, services price inflation is still proving persistent, and was approximately 4% in the median OECD economy in September. Looking ahead, annual consumer price inflation in the G20 countries is expected to decline further and, by the end of 2025 or early 2026, inflation is projected to be back to target in almost all remaining major economies.

Headline inflation projections for 2024, 2025 and 2026, %, year-on-year, G20

High labour shortages call for decisive policy action

Despite some easing in labour markets, labour and skill shortages remain at very high levels. Over the past decade, job vacancy rates have nearly doubled, with particularly sharp increases in sectors like healthcare and ICT. Population ageing is exacerbating these shortages and is expected to accelerate in the coming decades. Persistent labour shortages can impede economic growth and making the most out of digital and green transitions. To address this, aligning the labour force and its skills with emerging needs requires public and private investments in upskilling and reskilling, as well as reforms in education and lifelong learning systems.  

Significant uncertainties persist

Our central scenario in the Economic Outlook portrays a picture of resilience. However, this optimism is tempered by significant uncertainties. Elevated geopolitical tensions risk disrupting energy markets and supply chains, potentially driving inflation higher and dampening economic activity. More broadly, these tensions have created headwinds for trade in both advanced and emerging markets, heightening uncertainty over the future course of global trade. A more fragmented, protectionist trading environment and inward-looking policies would negatively affect competition, raise prices, and hinder productivity and growth, while also weighing on the potential for emerging market economies to catch up.

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